- Thread starter monroe
- Start date
Precisely, the probability of this happening is ~1:1,048,580 (or even way smaller if the rolls are fully randomized on reloads) Which is not to say it can't ever happen, but, well.
- May 19, 2018
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You just need to continue to do the events with the girls to increase the love stat
I have no need to exaggerate for effect. These were failed interactions with multiple guests in a row.
As for no people remarking on it... let's turn the question around, can you confirm that the 75% chance card has actually triggered for you, when playing the current version of the game?
What worked for me was a character trait. I didn't check the other cards (the 25% and 50% ones) it is possible they are bugged along with 75% one.
You are confusing the odds of single outcome with odds of a series of outcomes. The latter is cumulative although yes, the individual event odds remain unchanged.
The odds of getting two heads (or tails) consecutively are not equal to odds of heads/tails of a single toss.
I don't think you know what you're talking about at this point. The character who managed to avoid the strike had the trait and didn't have a card equipped. Thus, it's pretty obvious what worked in their case.
Again, you don't really know what you're talking about.
For a pair of independent events P(A) and P(B) the probability of getting specific outcome is
P(A) * P(B).
You are absolutely right.
There's a big difference between calculating consecutive and independent events.
And although getting a negative outcome 10 times in a row can happen, it's statistically very unlikely.
I looked at the code and noticed that I didn't even include the card effects (room upgrades and traits are working, but not cards and items)!
Thanks for letting me know!
I'll make sure that's fixed for next month's update.
Here'sThere is no "pair" of independent events. There is one event, with 2 outcomes. Success\Failure.
One of those outcomes (Failure), has a further 2 outcomes, Strike or Not, driven by odds of 3:1 in favour of Not.
Failing the customer interaction is on you.
Receiving a strike for it is on RNG.
You can fail it 1,000 times, the odds are still 3:1. RNG doesn't care about your previous attempts.
You've clearly never played games with loot boxes.
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you might want to read before another reply. It explains the concept of a series of independent events you say don't exist.In context of our discussion, the "series" was a failure to avoid a strike (an independent event with 1:4 odds) followed by another failure to avoid a strike (another independent event with 1:4 odds) followed by another independent failure... etc.
While you're right "the RNG doesn't care about your previous attempts" (which is what makes these individual events independent, with their odds unchanged) the math used to calculate probability of a series of specific outcomes does. It also has nothing to do with loot box nonsense.
Anyway, it looks like the matter was decidedly resolved, thanks to the game developer staying on top of the game. So, a happy end~
- Dec 5, 2019
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what events ? i need 75 love stats while i only got 60 . and the requirements for next event is to get that 75 love stats
- May 19, 2018
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This dude is one of the rare devs I respect, along side with NTL. Finishing a game development at this pace seems so rare these days and I am really happy people like them exist, thanks.
Sigh. A "pair" is, in this context, "a series of two". That's why, when you questioned existence of a "pair" of events i've directed you to explanation on how probability for series (including "pairs") is calculated.
The rest of your reply makes it pretty clear you didn't take my advice, and now you're also messing up terminology of independent/dependent events. Whether out of ignorance or on purpose i cannot tell, but this is pointless to continue.
- Dec 5, 2019
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- Sep 25, 2018
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Please post the crash log as well.
* C:/Users/tipco/AppData/Local/Temp/Faerin Games/Mystwood Manor/Crashes
* C:/Users/tipco/AppData/Local/Temp/Faerin Games/Mystwood Manor/Crashes
- Dec 1, 2019
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Yes, it is. And none of the individual fails in the 10+ fail series are in any way suspect for that. However if we look at the series as a whole, it becomes different.
Let's assume we threw a coin each day who has to do the dishes. On any given day in a year it is either me or you, and there will be series where one has to go for quite a while in a row without anybody raising an eyebrow.
But if I were to tell you every day of the year that by pure chance the coin said "whichone will do the dishes", you might suspect that I am not producing purely random results and that either the coin itself or my throwing of it might not be fair.
This whole type of experiment (either something happens or it doesn't, we do it repeatedly and check the number of "successes", each individual outcome is independent of anything that happened prior, and so forth) is called a "Bernoulli process" and pretty well researched. And indeed the probability of 10 "fails" in a row given the conditions in this game is low enough to warrant a check. Which Faerin did, so the issue is resolved.
We can go back to our scheduled "can we fuck mum yet?" now.
- Sep 25, 2018
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the crash log doesn't say much either.What you can try is to uninstall your gpu's driver with DDU (
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) and install them again.