With how positive the reception has been since the launch of ch2, I am now pretty much definitely going to make a patreon alongside the release of ch3. I have no idea what benefits might be on it at this stage, but like you say there doesn't necessarily have to be tiered benefits - it's just that's the most common business model for these things, so I figured people would possibly expect/want rewards/perks like offered on other patreons.
I will say I don't personally find much correlation between patreon numbers and quality, though. It can be a good indictaion, sure, but generally I think that, for AVNs, popularity doesn't tend to equal quality a lot of the time. That's just personal opinion, though, and I wouldn't die on this hill either really. I do appreciate it being particularly useful if you want to avoid spoilers, because it's hard for recommendations to be spoiler free, so I understand your position too.
And then on your second comment, you are right that there are plenty of devs out there with long release cycles etc. and it's up to people whether they want to support that or not. It was just for me, in my situation, I felt disingenuous were I to first set up a patreon with just one chapter released, and now after taking so long to make ch2 (i now realize i basically said this already in the comment you linked, so apologies for repeating myself a bit). Anyway, for me, at least once ch3 is out people will have two dev cycles of knowledge (and three chapters of content) with which to decide whether or not they want to support. (even though I'm aware that I could just make one now and the situation is the functionally the same; people will decide whether they want to support or not. but it's just a personal preference at this point, where i'm not comfortable with it at this juncture)
A suggestion to think about. I think you should make it now or as soon as you're comfortable doing it but prior to Ch 3.
Patreon subscribers are sticky but their budget and their attention aren't unlimited. There are more and more new games (or new release of old games) available from now until your chapter 3 is out. The longer you go without patreon account, the higher the probability Person A already subscribed to some other devs and will not subscribed to you due to lack of $ or limited attention.
It may not even be because your game is lower quality than Game B and C that Person A already subscribed, it's moreso the combination of limited budget and habit. Some people do managed their patreon subscription actively but for the average person, I'm not so sure. If your game to Person A is their B-tier, the average person may just keep support to the B-tier game they already patron instead of switching to your game.
Going to Patreon, clicking settings, then membership, then view details, then "switch to another tier" or "cancel membership" is a lot of hassle. If Person A budget is $20 per month, they may not reduce support from one dev to then switch to you. If their budget doesn't increase, they might just stay idle.
Outside of your own level of comfortability, I see only downside for any dev to not just have patreon.
I've seen some dev nowadays that set up patreon before they even have initial release.
Not releasing patreon at the end of August right when your Chapter 2 was released is a mistake from my view.
Because the moment your update was released, once it reaches places like this site and other sites like this, that's the one singular moment when people would patron. People's attention is really limited.
Once some time has passed after your Ch 2 was release, your game update would have already get drowned by numerous other games that gets release that period and also drowned by alternative entertainment options that isn't AVNs that also got release that week.
Itch.io doesn't replace patreon. At least not for me. It's easy for me to pay for game on steam or patreon because on top of already remembering their layout, I can buy there with one click because I've used it in the past. This is not true for itchio. To pay for an itchio game for me, i need to click "pay with". And yet after clicking "pay with", i need to input an email, that's one obstacle. Say i put an email, i still need to type payment information after, that's two obstacles.
If I want to remove those two obstacles, registering for an itchio account may have eliminated those. But registering to a new site is an obstacle for many people, not just for me. I understand it isn't "hard" to register, but it's still an obstacle. People's attention are limited.
I will say I don't personally find much correlation between patreon numbers and quality, though.
High number of patrons does not equal quality. It just means people are sticking around. If people are sticking around, chances are the game continues to be developed. There's so many abandoned games but there's only so much time.
