I think your method assumes the update cycle won't increase?
My 10-day statistic is based on the 2 status updates posts throughout this continous update cycle, now of course dev could come out and say: "scrap the previous statistics I decided to double the amount of content" is that what you meant? I mean that the amount of content could be increased in the midst of an update cycle? otherwise the status updates percentages are consistent enough.
Because if it does increase, certainly we'd get more teasers?
It's tied to the percentages represented in the recent status updates averaged to be more accurate, now I would assume these precentages are cut from what final destination the dev envisioned (100%) mainly because they are consistent enough.
I think your method assumes the update cycle won't increase? Because if it does increase, certainly we'd get more teasers? The teaser cycle is (approximately) every 10 days; that may have coincided with update completion %, but it's actually independent of it.
I dont rely on that, I couldve made the same calculation just based purely on the status updates, but I used the teasers as a tool to break the statistic down to be more accurate about how much progress is being made each 10 day cycle
on average.
Think about it like that - if instead of teasers there would have been status updates every 10 days you would probably see the accumulation of the mentioned 10-day statistic
on average.
If the update cycle were to double, the teaser cycle wouldn't increase to 20 days just to give the same number of teaser updates.
Right, it wouldn't, but the progression percentages would have been cut in half, I mean of the 100% was meant to represent double the amount of work (hence double the amount of teasers) that I assumed then the status updates would necessarily have to represent lower percentages and the 10-day statistic will be directly affected by that because its directly derived from those reports.
A better formula might be something like:
("update cycle days" minus "writing cycle days") / 10 = teaser cycles
All that's left is to estimate the update cycle and work backwards from there.
Let's run with that
Start of update cycle -
March 10th, assumed end of update cycle -
November 21st (256 Days)
Assumed writing cycle :
Sep 21st - November 21st (61 Days)
(Ch 11 took 1 month and 2.5 weeks to complete the writing cycle, Ch 12 is much bigger, so its safe to assume around 2 months)
195/10 =
19.5
Eh, pretty much the same.
Let me tell ya about unnecessary demonstartion of intellect, but I just cant help it