Cmann

Active Member
Donor
Feb 7, 2019
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Okay, so is that 13.4% chance the same chance each time, or are you saying that it builds up to 63.5%?
If it's not a cumulative build up, and each time it's that same 13.4%, then I honestly don't see the point in even mentioning the percentage chance for the whole week.
To challenge a statement you made by demonstrating it is more likely to occur in one game week than not.
It is an exceptional condition to them being temporary
For anything further, please consult your nearest mathematician about probability theory.
 

Snugglepuff

Conversation Conqueror
Apr 27, 2017
7,574
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To challenge a statement you made by demonstrating it is more likely to occur in one game week than not.
It doesn't challenge it at all. It doesn't challenge anything.

For anything further, please consult your nearest mathematician about probability theory.
Or, y'know, you could have just answered plainly the first time round, instead of pointlessly throwing out formulae that don't answer any questions asked of you.
 

Cmann

Active Member
Donor
Feb 7, 2019
517
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Or, y'know, you could have just answered plainly the first time round, instead of pointlessly throwing out formulae that don't answer any questions asked of you.
Except the 'pointlessly thrown around formula' not only showed you how I reached the number previously given, but also that simply dividing that number by 7 to reach base chance was wrong since that's not how probability works.
Have a hopefully good day, enough spam from me in this thread :)
 

KingWeWuz

Well-Known Member
Mar 8, 2019
1,195
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Except the 'pointlessly thrown around formula' not only showed you how I reached the number previously given, but also that simply dividing that number by 7 to reach base chance was wrong since that's not how probability works.
Have a hopefully good day, enough spam from me in this thread :)
I'm surprised it took you so long before giving up.
 
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fulcrum

Engaged Member
Feb 2, 2018
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Okay, so is that 13.4% chance the same chance each time, or are you saying that it builds up to 63.5%?
If it's not a cumulative build up, and each time it's that same 13.4%, then I honestly don't see the point in even mentioning the percentage chance for the whole week.
probability doesnt stack, every roll has an individual chance to land on the required numbers. however i didnt read the actual code, it may or may not multiplicate with number of tries.
 

Cmann

Active Member
Donor
Feb 7, 2019
517
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probability doesnt stack, every roll has an individual chance to land on the required numbers. however i didnt read the actual code, it may or may not multiplicate with number of tries.
Never said it stacked, his words. Answer was given treating it as a binomial probability.
 
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KingWeWuz

Well-Known Member
Mar 8, 2019
1,195
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probability doesnt stack, every roll has an individual chance to land on the required numbers. however i didnt read the actual code, it may or may not multiplicate with number of tries.
The probability he and I have described is in stats, based on the variable likelihood of similar outcomes with the same odds.

It's effectively the same as arguing flipping a coin has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails.

But the odds of two heads or two tails is 25%. The odds of it being the same 3 times is 12.5%.

What he and I were doing is the same, but using the odds of 13%.
 

muttdoggy

Dogerator
Staff member
Moderator
Aug 6, 2016
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I have a suggestion. You guys can start a conversation between yourselves to discuss the finer points of statistical mathematics. And whether or not it stacks in the game. Let's get back to less statistical stuff for now since it appears that some of you are getting a little bothered by this convo.
 
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