Your reasoning is right except for the fact that they don't have the man power to pull it off, much less pull it off in the back of their returned Donn and daughter both of which want to keep peace with the Delucas.
Do Mina really care ?
Sending someone strike in a main house. Believing that her Family is still among the most powerful while they lost everything above the capo rank, before saying the opposite when facing Nazazi to make him looks crazy. Threatening to kill the heir of the Silverino Family. Believing that the Silverino is still a totally insignificant Family. Trying to lecture Nazazi right after, and because, he killed the guy that pulled a gun on him.
We can't really say that she's smart.
But what we can say is that she maintains a certain animosity against the DeLuca ; probably because they sided with the Carnefice and are still reluctant to use the service of the Ombra Family. I'm sure that there's many people outside of the Ombra Family that she could have sent to kill MC. Yet she choose the heir of the defunct Carnefice Family, and knowingly sent her strike in the main house, when she could have had him killed during one of his many solo mission (the one that happen behind the game because he haven't had only five missions so far). Whatever if Eiza succeeded or not. The heir Carnefice killing, or at least trying to kill, someone in the DeLuca main house... It's like a sister backstabbing her brother, an irony that Mina surely savored, and what a shame for the DeLuca Family.
We also know, again thanks to Siobhan, that Mina is scheming since apparently a long time. Deluded as she is, she probably believe that she now have strong alliances with the other Families, and that they would stand at her side in case of war against the relatively disliked DeLuca.
Of course, Nazazi wouldn't agree to this war, but would he have the choice ? Since striking directly the main house is a war declaration, and everyone believe that the DeLuca are a bunch of crazy guys, Mina can perfectly believe that the war would be unavoidable and that Nazazi wouldn't have other choice than to fight back. In fact, him getting back the control, and even more his apologies, serve a deluded Mina scheme ; "Our Don apologized before the strike, and we clearly said that it was some rogue members that we disapprove who did it. And look at those crazy DeLuca, they still started a war ! It's not our fault, you all agree, right ? So, my friends, you'll stand at our size, right ?"
Once again, I don't say that it's what happened, just that it make sense.
Here is how i see that timeline: Siobhan pushed to start going out while the Donn was still Active / not broken, he gave the order to protect her from the shadows without her knowing, time passes and his mental capacity / state worsens, he gives the order for the wife to Become "leader" (which is why he now say's he is removing that power), and locks himself in that room with the booze. So by the time the wife gives the order to stop following Siobhan they wouldn't have any reason to go for the Donn, "she is strong enough now, and doesn't need help" come into mind.
Except that it's not what we know.
Nazazi is broken since the day he killed Efrem and Zin. Apparently he gave up on his anger, and killed them for a ridiculous reason. Normally he would have only beaten the shit out of them, but he probably thought that killing Efrem was the best way to prove his father that he's really worthy, since just beating him wasn't enough. Then he realized what he did and broke, living constantly with their ghost in his mind.
And it's not something recent. Learning this, Siobhan first thought was that Zin could have been her mother, and that Nazazi killed her to be with Mina. Therefore it happened at least between her birth and the birth of the oldest of her sisters ; let's say around 18 years ago. But anyway one thing is sure, since Zin is Mina's sister, she was dead before Siobhan's third/fourth birthday, else she would have at least some blurry memories about her, and they would have came back once learning about her from Nazario.
Of course, Nazazi past the lead to Mina years later, partly because he wasn't the Head of the Family at this time, but not recently enough for it to fit the narrative:
- Siobhan "And you guys think that sending me out on missions without protection will make me strong?"
- Nazazi "Ha! We only wanted to make you think you weren't protected, to toughen you up a bit."
- Nazazi "There were always people secretly protecting you. In honesty, I didn't think it would work with you. Weren't you supposed to be the smart one of the bunch? Seems you're not that smart after all."
- Siobhan "Not surprised you don't know. You're always drunk."
- Nazazi "What the hell is that supposed to mean?"
- Siobhan "Someone told your 'secret' people to be so secret that they weren't even there. And since it wasn't you, I guess it must have been Mom."
[the "it's mom fault because..." part]
- Nazazi "Ridiculous! Just because you didn't see them, doesn't mean they weren't there!"
- Siobhan "Then where were they when our enemies came for me? Mostly they don't dare approach me because of who I am. But twice now, my life has been in actual danger."
So, firstly it's not Siobhan who asked for those missions. She probably already wanted to leave the Family at this time.
Secondly, it seem clear that the guys where never there, not a single time. Else Siobhan would have said something among the line of "at first yes, but at first only". Hopes wouldn't have made such mistake. That he misuse a word time to time due to translation issues, yes. But that he totally mess up a dialog line, no, I can't believe it, especially not to this point.
Thirdly, Nazazi use "we" when he talk about this. It's not his decision, it's theirs. And personally I see it as "me and your mother". What make me wrong, there's no loyalty issue here, they just were never told to protect her.
[...] Even the mad wife said it would be crazy to go after the delucas head on, [...]
After knowingly sending Eiza kill someone in the main house... I have difficulties believing that she was honest when she said that.
What doesn't mean that it's the Ombra. As I said, it's a plausible possibility accordingly to what we know about the story. But the truth, only Hopes know it.
What i meant was they (whoever they are) could have had someone hidden in a nearby building to do the sniper shot, even then it would have to be someone from really far away or really good, as i bet the guys the Delucas have on watch are pretty good, it wouldn't be strange for one of the best to be on watch,
Look at the windows exploding, and listen the sound FX, it's a good old shooting with assault rifles. And it's not the DeLuca firing back, we see Antonio avoiding a bullet near the end of the shooting. They clearly infiltrated the perimeter, up to the main house, and with assault rifles. And I really can't believe that they could have did that unnoticed unless it's a long time operation.
A sniper would have shoot once, then waited an opportunity to kill his next target. It's what is great with a sniper, one hour later you still can't be sure that he isn't here waiting for you to make the wrong move.
And why hit Gracie when he could have started with Cordia, Antonio or Luna, who are way more dangerous threats, especially after such attack. Personally, I would have targeted Antonio first. Due to where he is placed, Cordia would have become a perfect target when rushing to him. The DeLuca would have lost their Head and Capo Bastone the same day, being left with (seen from the outside) uninvolved Gracie, and crazy Luna to lead them. Gracie would have done a great job, but this only Wilfred and Cordia know it.
The one thing about this attack that i dont get is: They don't lack money, so if i was in their shoes, i would have had bullet prove windows installed on the first day i could afford it. Seems like a no-brainer first things first of House defense.
There's rules, and sneakily striking the main house goes against all those rules.
Who ever they are i think its a big dog, and probably one we don't know about / expect.
Well, it's "them", at least it's what Antonio think. And this absolutely not help us, thanks a lot Hopes
But against 0.50" / 12.7 mm or higher, even AP rounds?
Well, some modern RPG can fire at 400 meters. And since the effective range can goes up to 1Km, while there's no need for a good accuracy when you fire against a house, please make everything strong enough to resist an antitank load.
