The first shot is very clearly a sniper shot, you don't use an automatic rifle in single shot mode, then wait for everyone to take cover, switch to full auto and then start shooting again.
The first shot is clearly depicted in slow motion, so there's no way to tell if it was effectively a single shot or not. Not that it isn't one, but as the scene is presented to us, no one can say if Gracie was the target of a single shot, or if she was hit bit the opening shot.
As for the action order, look at the scene:
- Gracie is shot
- Cordia stand up and reach the angle of the table
- The windows explode
- Antonio rush to the windows
- Luna jump over the table
At no time this depict the assailants waiting for them to take cover. Especially since Cordia never took cover.
And if you go by accoustics only, [...] I don't believe that that is relevant at all though, I think that's just a soundfile Hope used because it was available.
I agree on the fact that you can't base something on the analyze of the soundtrack ; at least not more that "there were automatics involved". Hopes used what he found that was the closest of what he had in mind, but I doubt that he would have used one with automatics fire, if he had in mind that there were none used at this time.
But I started by pointing the windows, because here it's 100% relevant to what Hopes wanted to depict, and either the assailants are fuckingly well coordinated, or it was a burst fire.
The one thing, that's not in doubt, is that Gracie was targeted. Single shot - center mass, there is no way that that was a coincidence or mistake.
You would be surprise how easily it is to have such hit by hazard. But I have a question for you: Why shot Gracie if it's not to kill her ?
Not that I already know that Gracie will survive
(even if it's obvious, thanks to "TriaQuaedem"). No, I ask due to the fact that she was hit in the upper chest, on the neck alignment, by what you expect to be a sniper shot. It's the worse sniper ever that did this shot. Not only he didn't targeted the head, what will have ensured him that the target is dead, but he also completely missed the heart (not the right height, nor the right alignment).
Even if Hopes choose a random place for the hit, he must be really weak in biology if he believe that the heart is located somewhere near the place Gracie was hit ; there's near to a whole hand between the two.
[pure conjecture]
What happened right before the shot is that Luna played with the empty seat next to her, tilting it in her direction. Between her seat and this one, MC is now totally shielded. We see it clearly in the CG, anyone who had a line of sight on MC lost it at this instant and never get it back. We see the said seat knocked down to the ground, it fall when Luna removed her foot to jump over the table. And at this time MC was still near Gracie, totally hidden.
MC was the target, and since the assailant(s) goes this far, he/they had to open fire anyway. With chance they could still have an opening to fulfill the mission, and anyway it would send a message. It would also conceal the fact that it was an assassination attempt, by making it looks like a shooting.
And the full auto afterwards makes perfect sense too, it's to facilitate the escape. You hit your target and then spray and pray to use the confusion to get away.
It's the opposite, the shooting make absolutely no sense if it was a sniper shot and Gracie was the target.
You send a sniper to hit/kill a target. It's a guy alone, he will carry a rifle that he have the habit to disassemble/reassemble and to conceal, and he will need only one round. The barrel can perfectly be hidden inside a crutch, and someone needing crutch to walk will both attire the attention and feel as anything but a threat. Probability to be noticed while infiltrating the DeLuca territory: Really low.
Sniping need time, you wait for the target to be in place, then you wait until you have a good line of sight, and finally you wait until the wind favor you. The guy is hidden somewhere, and really well hidden because he expect to pass probably all the dinner waiting for the occasion, while not being sure at what time exactly the said dinner will starts. Probability to be noticed before the shot: Really low.
After a sniper have shot once, the only thing you know is that there's a sniper. Where is he ? Is he still here ? It's unknown and for the following times you stay cautious. Probability to be noticed after a single shot: Really low.
The record for a sniper hit is above two and half kilometers. Without going this far, the sniper can perfectly be at one kilometer from the target. Probability to be caught while leaving the operation zone after a long range shot: Really low.
While he love his rifle, a sniper don't need it once his mission accomplished. This mean that he can perfectly leave the town being nothing more than a civilian wandering hands in the pockets. Probability to be caught while leaving the operation zone after a short range shot: Low.
At the opposite, to have a bursts fire, it mean that you have an assault rifle in place of a rifle.
You don't snipe with such weapon, it lack of precision both in the aim and the shooting, and it have a too short efficient range. Elite shooters can hit at around 200 meters, but why use an assault rifle that will be harder to conceal if you are this far ?
Doing this with an assault rifle make no sense. You need to come closer, what increase the risk to be seen, and you'll have a lower accuracy, what lower the chance to have a fatal hit on your target.
But even in this case, if you're here to snipe, you make your shoot, drop your weapon and run while everyone is still wondering what happened. Is it really a shot that I heard ? Is it an attack or an accidental shot ? The further the person is from a single shot, the higher are the chance that he don't identify it as being a shot. Therefore, you'll have higher chance to leave the zone than if you stay and empty few clips before leaving, what will leave no doubt regarding what happened, in a more or less 500 meters radius.
I don't see Hopes, and his strong attention to details, make such mistake.
Furthermore, Antonio looking out the window and not seeing a shooter on full automatic that has breached the perimeter are slim to none.
Haven't you seen the property ? There's a two meters wall all around it and trees everywhere. You can't shoot the house if you aren't inside the property limits, or at really long range. And if you are inside the property limits, you have many possibilities to take cover.
I am pretty sure that first shot was a sniper shot, from outside the perimeter for example, then they started to attack the guards,
Same question that to TimHawk then, why bother with an attack on the house when you've a sniper somewhere ?
The sniper will hit the target and leave the zone without being noticed, and I don't see what shooting the house add to the message ; they already hit one of the heir, what stronger message is there than this one ?
At the opposite, adding an assault unit increase the risk to raise suspicion. If one member of this team isn't discrete enough, the DeLuca will search the town and risk to find your sniper before he complete his mission.
And of course, there's still the fact that it's a terribly bad shot for a sniper. The guy can hit an apple at 1Km, and missed by one hand the heart of an immobile target.
Lol rules are meant to be broken, [...]
Yet as Siobhan said, most of the time she was safe despite begin uncovered, because of who she is. Because yes, what she say matter, Hopes never choose his word randomly. It's parts of the reason why he need so much time between each updates, he take the time to write the lines as they have to be.
And you can also refer to Luna, who can shot someone in the leg and still be the one to whom goes the apologies. Or Luna and Gracie, that can be in the center of a massive assault that will fail precisely because it's out of question to risk hurting them.
Rules aren't so easily broken in the Mafia ; at least in the old fashioned one that Hopes use as reference. The only ones who broke them are those who stand outside of the Mafia... "them".
