Well he has progressed even more slowly than the lowest estimate.
On July 19th (Week 32) he had 228 completed animations. This was estimated as 5.89 completed animation per week since week 4. Had he been progressing at that rate there would be 275.12 animations completed. We have 267 (306-39). This suggests an average of 4.9 since week 32. We are now in week 40. Technically this cycle has an average of 6.7 since week 1. However if we count from week 4 we have 204 completed animation at an average of 5.6 a week. (The reason to count from week 4 as this avoids anything rendered before the release of the rpevious episode. )
I think he said he was going to aim for 40 or 50 more than the previous episode let's say 375 for the sake of arguement. At an average of 4.9 that will mean animation completion week 62 or February 14th. Plus beta testing means a relase last week of February or first week on March.
However I think some of what will have slowed this process down is he has essentially had a system working on still renders for much of the last few weeks. So we could go back up to the 5.89 average once the stills queue is done. That would mean completion some time between week 58 and 59, 17th-24th January. With beta testing it could mean a Valetines day release 14th February. That is what i'd bet on at this point.
If we take the average of 5.6 from week 4 to 40 then completion would be week 59-60 or January 24th to 31st. Either way I think it is safe to presume Feburary at the earliest. And at least a further 9 weeks development over the previous episode, which itself was 9 weeks longer than the one before which in turn was 12 weeks more than the one before.
The only way I can see it being earlier is if he decreases his animation estimate, or if his systems can rattle through the queue more quickly once the work on stills is completed. Next time he says renderings 60 fps on the new cards is quicker than 30fps on the old ones know this is bullshit. To prove this we can look at episode 9. On the 3090's at 30fps he had 303 animations completed on week 40. The week he confirmed beta testing. 33 more animation on the older cards at the lower frame rate.
View attachment 4029835