Well the thing is that the deciding factor has always been the renders. Everything else is stuff he does while he waits on the PCs to do the rendering. It doesn't matter what else he was doing. So long as the machines kept rendering, their pace is what counts. If those machines have been busy with no down time since mid February that is effectively how long it has taken to get to 50%. About 8 months. And 8 months from mid October would be mid June. After that there would still be testing which would push it to July at the absolute earliest. Slipping to September is only 2 months and would just be a straight up more realistic estimate that accounted for potential problems like one of his PCs calling it quits.
But the straight up mistake you make is the 5-6 months to September. If the release gets pushed to September 1st it has slipped to September. In order to have slipped a full 6 months the expectation would have been 1st of March. But maybe you meant that as slipping further than just September 1st. Still if you meant to suggest the end of April as the earliest release date slipping to early September is only a bit over 4 months. Any later release date slipping to September 1st is less than 4 months. This can't be called anything else than a mistake.
And when you wouldn't own up to that mistake everything else you said became suspect as you apparently didn't care if it was wrong.
About this whole topic, there is one key detail to remember.
The 50% done with the update affirmation probably came from the 24/10 report where DPC mentioned being 45-50% done with statics and around 55% done with animations.
However, they numbers refer only to
POSED content.
Posed content, both static and animations, still needs to be
actually rendered.
And that process takes quite a long time, specially in the animations.
DPC only useful number to see how close we really are was in the 20/06 report where he said he had 100+ animations rendered.
We don't know the final number, but a ~20% increase from last time is a reasoable guess based on past trends.
So that would puts us on 480 total animations for EP 12, with a 100 done by june. If we are lucky, the number should be 200 now since the number of rendered animations was 54 in the 11/04 report.
Basically, we aren't 50% done yet, animating all the content is a disproportionally huge part of development.
04/09/2026, mark my words friends.
People also seem to forget that the current trend is previous Dev Cycle + 3 months, which would put the current trajectory at 18 months, which is also September, so September will always be the realistic guess. -
While yes, DPC's newer rigs might be able to render a bit faster, we don't really have enough data to suggest what the time save here is, but we do have a bit of information... When DPC dropped the last percentage way back on Sept 12 with that silly graph that showed nothing, he estimated animations alone were at 40 - 45% Its taken 6 weeks to get that to roughly 55% - So the current pace is roughly 10% every 6 weeks for the animations alone... we need another 45%, which based on the previous mentioned limited information would need anywhere between 54 weeks if we are take it at at a low 5% every 6 weeks or 27 weeks if we take the quoted 10%... to be fair, given he used rough estimates we should take the middle ground of this number about 40 weeks, which from the 24th October puts us at the 31st July - we could perhaps +/- a few weeks either side here, but the using the trends of previous releases and the very limited information we have been given does not suggest a Pace that would lead to an April release, but at best an August release.
Basically this, an August release is fairly optimistic knowing DPC's past trends.
Why are you so pessimistic?
Why are you making gloomy predictions that inspire sadness?
We need to believe in the best.
We must believe that DPC will speed up the work and do his best.
From his great love for the F95zone fan community.
DPC personally beat the hope out of me after the EP 9 cycle.
So yeah, I will never expect any improvement and the cycles will always increase.
That bastard won't hurt me again lol
