Here's a weird thought or fucked up twist that
@Belle could do to throw us completely off.
Thaddeus is the one who used the scales to transform. He transformed into the old witch lady, to gain access to the library room.
Obviously to kill Merric, who could expose him, either by having seen in visions Thaddeus plan, or could be able to deduce through knowing the lies that he would tell.
His plan was to kill Merric and get rid of the only other truthsayer, by implicating you. Also by using the transformation spell as an old lady, he could also implicate the Crone too. As she is another that can expose him, so he is killing multiple birds with one stone.
Now I haven't played the route where Rose actually goes to jail, so I don't know for sure if Rose actually tells them about the old lady or not. I suspect that's exactly what Thaddeus wants, so he can bring in the old crone, and have them both executed.
He's not so much worried about you now, since he knows the you are a crap truthsayer, and poses no threat to his plans.
So I think that all the evidence pointing now to the Crone, is just to throw us off. It seems to well of a coincidence, that even Belle is questioning it herself.
I know there's a lot of people here that think that the Princess sister is in fact the Crone and lady at the river.
I suspect that it may be unknown to Thaddeus as well, and is the one variable, besides the MC, that will be his downfall.
At the coronation, I'm getting the vibe that, not only will the MC and the secret order expose Thaddeus, but that the Crone will show the Princess her true identity after.
Maybe due to the fact, that she never wanted to take the throne, and was going to be forced to, as the next in line to the throne.
If she played dead, it would then default to the Princess/ her sister, and release her of the obligation.
I also get the vibe, that the MC is the dark mage or sorcerer that initially put the Princess under this spell. From the story sake, it sounds as if it deals with the demon realm, that Samara was talking about.
I believe that Thaddeus actually hired the MC to use the spell, and the MC found out his plans. Then he wiped his own memories, with the same intentions as the Crone, to put a stop to Thaddeus. It would still have to tie in and restore the secret order again.
Then again, I could be way off base here, but I enjoy the guessing game.
@Belle has done an amazing job, much love for you!!……………………………..Peace!!