Yes, I can now see that it clearly wasn't self-harm. Heh, I remembered the shot of his bloody arm and assumed he had tried cutting his wrists, but I somehow forgot about the collapsed lungs line (which totally doesn't match up with self-harm) and the fact that Nami talks about a "violent incident".
It's interesting that there was never any mention of a criminal investigation - which would definitely happen in case of attempted murder, grievous bodily harm and a young girl disappearing. I suppose that an investigation did take place but the case was unsolved and dropped, the MC pushed the whole incident out of his memory and Nojiko/Nami never bring it up so as not to open up old wounds.
The second session with Amber also shows that even though the scene with the police arriving at the cabin was cut, it's still canon as the MC mentions an officer by name.I would assume that a cop who finds two kids out in the woods after dark would take them back home. If so, the incident must have taken place at another time and place.
Or maybe the officer knew them personally and left them there after seeing they're fine and then something went down. But that's something he/she definitely wouldn't do if Razrback's suggestion about organized criminal groups known to be active in the area is right.
Welp, I'm really looking forward to that cabin trip with Amber!