I will agree that health issues seem to be quite prevalent in devs, more so than would be expected, and understand you point. There are some things that will mitigate this statistic (like for the more professional ones that being self employed with no guaranteed income high enough to make a careless living being really bad for your health, psychological as well as physical, that code monkey jobs are also not the ones with the best work-life balance - loads of extra work, little social contacts (which are important too, for many), sitting in a chair in artificial light ...).
Yeah, there are certainly many excuses out there. Dog ate my code. Brother-in-law had an accident. Had Covid. And if too many happen to the same person, I'll be cautious, too. However, assuming that some must be lying is something else than assuming a specific individual is.