souldead341

Engaged Member
Oct 16, 2017
2,124
2,166
That's what I wound up doing, but cheating to get the golden ending feels bad man. What do you mean, that's not how RNG really works?
Yeah, unless there's something else going on, every random number generated is supposed to be independent of the previous result. This is a whole field of study, to find a formula that isn't predictable, since computers can't really using human methods of generating random numbers (fair dice, spinning a wheel, flipping a coin, exc), but that's more detail I'm not going to go into.

As was mentioned, the gambler's fallacy assumes that the more negative results you had, the more likely you're to have a positive result. As an example, roulette has a basic bet on red or black. Many gamblers will see a string of red and think "It must be about to hit black" and bet on black. But each spin of the wheel is independent, having between a 48.6 and 46.2 percent chance of hitting either a red or black space (depending on the number of green house wins spaces). It doesn't matter how many times the same color is picked, each individual spin has the same odds (assuming a fair table).

What you did is assume the full string of your results is the odds of getting the final result. So in roulette this would be (using 50% for simplicity) thinking that the table rolls red 4 times, then it only has a 3.125 (.5^5) percent chance of getting red again on the next spin. The odds of the specific streak of red is low, but that doesn't change the odds of each spin, since there's no memory in the system of the previous spins.

Video games often have some kind of pity / anti-frustration feature with required things like this. This can be having a memory of previous results, forcing a result, or having some other way around the RNG. In this case, as was just posted, there's a specific location to get the lighter fluid 100% of the time and a low chance all other areas.
 
Sep 26, 2020
297
356
~50% in 208 attempts, an attempt being 4 rounds, is about right.
1/1200 is 0.00083333
That leaves a 0.99916667 chance of not getting it each round.
With four rounds per attempt, the probability of not getting it all four times is 0.99916667^4, or 0.99667083, per attempt.
208 attempts is a 0.99667083^208, 0.99916667^832 or 0.49976246 chance of not getting lighter fluid all 832 times you try.

The gambler's fallacy would be believing the 208th attempt has a 50% chance of succeeding where the first 207 failed.

Believing that 208 consecutive attempts have a 50% chance of succeeding at least once somewhere along the way isn't a fallacy. It's mathematics.
 

XulOnTuesday

Member
Aug 7, 2022
172
208
That is for the RNG. It also has a fixed location in the lounge next to the fire. Scav there when the room is empty and you will find it.
I tried that, and it just gave the default RNG scavenge. At least in 0.3.2.05, the dis_haven_scavenge_lounge_fluid label appears to be disabled and isn't called from anywhere I can find.
 
Sep 26, 2020
297
356
~50% in 208 attempts, an attempt being 4 rounds, is about right.
1/1200 is 0.00083333
That leaves a 0.99916667 chance of not getting it each round.
With four rounds per attempt, the probability of not getting it all four times is 0.99916667^4, or 0.99667083, per attempt.
208 attempts is a 0.99667083^208, 0.99916667^832 or 0.49976246 chance of not getting lighter fluid all 832 times you try.

The gambler's fallacy would be believing the 208th attempt has a 50% chance of succeeding where the first 207 failed.

Believing that 208 consecutive attempts have a 50% chance of succeeding at least once somewhere along the way isn't a fallacy. It's mathematics.
Facepalm, is it?
Here, check with Google:
1700648089080.png
Here's marginally over 50% at 832 attempts:
1700648198007.png
Here are the first 20 rolls, with a straight line for comparison:
1700648389006.png
Go ahead. Facepalm that, too, if you really want everyone here to know you don't understand the fallacy you accused someone else of committing.
 

souldead341

Engaged Member
Oct 16, 2017
2,124
2,166
Facepalm, is it?
Here, check with Google:

Here's marginally over 50% at 832 attempts:

Here are the first 20 rolls, with a straight line for comparison:

Go ahead. Facepalm that, too, if you really want everyone here to know you don't understand the fallacy you accused someone else of committing.
Please go and read what the gambler's fallacy actually is, since it's not what you posted. What you posted is an entirely different fallacy (which I don't know if it has an official name), but I would call something like the "odds fallacy".

Here's a helpful , if you don't want to google it.

Yes, as you roll more attempts, the chances of getting at least one success approach 100% no matter how unlikely that event is, which is NOT what the gambler's fallacy is. It is only about the lack of memory between one random event and another, but humans tend to assume that a small number of samples hold true for a larger sample. Roulette colors landing is where this was first codified, thus why I used that in my example. Coin flips, child genders, and other similar random events with a low number are easiest to see this with, but low probability things in games often lead to the assumption as well. Like thinking the boss has a 5% chance of dropping item X, so the more times I run the boss fight the more likely it is to drop X.

Regardless, this is going to be the last I post on this, since it'll get progressively more off topic (and possibly start a flamewar) if I continue.
 

Penitensary

Active Member
May 10, 2020
644
570
Like thinking the boss has a 5% chance of dropping item X, so the more times I run the boss fight the more likely it is to drop X.
I can understand the thought though.

If the drop chance is 5%, then there's a 95% chance of it not dropping. If you kill the boss twice, then the chance of still not having gotten the item is 95% of 95%, or 90.25%. You will therefore have a 9.75% chance that you will have gotten the item. While this can of course never be 100%, it would nevertheless approach it the more attempts are made even if the actual drop chance never changes.

Since the odds of not getting the drop even once keep getting smaller the more attempts are made, it would not be unexpected to translate this to an ever increasing chance of getting the thing to drop even though the percentage chance remains the same. That is something inherent of mass statistics :)
 
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Suncatcher42

Member
Aug 12, 2019
210
279
No shame for that one, I've never found the lighter fluid without cheating it lol.

But why... that's a complex answer (too complex for me). Simple answer is gambler's fallacy, the incorrect idea that previous chances impact the current one. Each attempt is independent of the others, not additive.
this isn't the gambler's fallacy. If you roll a 1/300 chance 208 times, there's a 299/300 chance of failing an individual attempt which means a (299/300)^208 chance of failing every attempt, which comes out to a 49.932% chance of failing all 208 tries and a 50.067% chance of succeeding at least one of them.

The gambler's fallacy would be assuming that if you have a 1/300 chance and you roll 300 times there's a 100% chance that one of them wins, when it's actually closer to a 63% chance. To get up into the 90% range you have to do almost 700 rolls, and 100% chance is impossible.
 
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souldead341

Engaged Member
Oct 16, 2017
2,124
2,166
this isn't the gambler's fallacy. If you roll a 1/300 chance 208 times, there's a 299/300 chance of failing an individual attempt which means a (299/300)^208 chance of failing every attempt, which comes out to a 49.932% chance of failing all 208 tries and a 50.067% chance of succeeding at least one of them.

The gambler's fallacy would be assuming that if you have a 1/300 chance and you roll 300 times there's a 100% chance that one of them wins, when it's actually closer to a 63% chance. To get up into the 90% range you have to do almost 700 rolls, and 100% chance is impossible.
I had a short discussion with someone else about this already, that isn't what the gambler's fallacy is either. The gambler's fallacy has a pretty specific definition, though there are numerous fallacies (including the one you mentioned) that gambler's use as part of their continued gambling. I posted the link to the wiki about what is specifically the gambler's fallacy, rather than any fallacy used by gamblers.

TLDR the gambler's fallacy is thinking previous random events affect future events when there's no link between those events. Roulette is the classic example, where gambler's see a string of red and assume that the wheel is more likely to get black due to that.
 
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Penitensary

Active Member
May 10, 2020
644
570
I had a short discussion with someone else about this already, that isn't what the gambler's fallacy is either. The gambler's fallacy has a pretty specific definition, though there are numerous fallacies (including the one you mentioned) that gambler's use as part of their continued gambling. I posted the link to the wiki about what is specifically the gambler's fallacy, rather than any fallacy used by gamblers.

TLDR the gambler's fallacy is thinking previous random events affect future events when there's no link between those events. Roulette is the classic example, where gambler's see a string of red and assume that the wheel is more likely to get black due to that.
Yup.

To elaborate, if the wheel landed on red seven times in a row, the gambler's fallacy is "The odds of it landing on red for the 8th consecutive time is 0.39%, therefore the chance of this roll being black is 99.61%" as opposed to the 50/50 chance it actually is.
 

buggzy313

Active Member
May 31, 2019
594
273
am sad there's no new updates yet.....(twitch)
am gonna wait ....very much patience I do yes sir (twitch)
o_O
 

Buffmutti

Member
Aug 27, 2021
148
117
I wonder why a non-public version 0.3.2.05 was uploaded to here when version 0.3.2.06 was released last month on patreon. Is there a secret agreement with the creator of this game to not publish patreon releases as soon as they are available on patreon?
 

Buffmutti

Member
Aug 27, 2021
148
117
Fixer_Bug2.jpg

I'm playing now version 0.3.2.06 and i used to advance my pregnancy "a bit", but if you look at the number of pregnancies you can read 2 instead of 1 (the number of Boys and Girls is a hint that this is my first pregnancy xD). Is this a known "side effect" of advancing the pregnancy with the cheat menu?
 

Fizel

Active Member
Feb 10, 2018
528
584
Okay to be fair I didn't see that the patreon version was UPDATED a bit later. The post that WAS .05 turned into .06. If someone had pointed it out nicely I would have uploaded it sooner. The posts aren't usually updated to post a new version, a new post is made.



NOTE** Updated to 3.2.06. Adds new clothes, fixes to cleaning and other bug fixes

This update adds in a whole bunch on new clothes. Too many I already lost count. It also has a few bug fixes reported since the last release.

Most, but not all, clothes have all breast/belly variations. I will get round to the missing ones as well as wardrobe icons tomorrow.

The Fixer 0.3.2.06 changelog

  • Added in 38 new wardrobe items including some Halloween themed outfits
  • Added in wardrobe icons for all new bits of clothes as well as icons for some previous missing items
  • Added in a checker when dressing up to make sure you actually have the items of clothing. Only really effects the cleaning job so you cant wear things you don’t own
  • Made it so cleaning the pub actually pays
  • Fixed where if you try to clean the pub without having worked there before, you would be naked.
  • Made it so that the wardrobe defaults to the outfit section if you are wearing an outfit. Otherwise it defaults to tops
  • Updated the fight checker, now if you have the broken perk or low confidence, you will be too afraid to fight back. If you have the succubus perk or the broken virgin perk you can choose not to resist
  • Fixed the gloryhole crash


-- --
 

Bawunga

Active Member
Dec 19, 2019
557
1,475
Okay to be fair I didn't see that the patreon version was UPDATED a bit later. The post that WAS .05 turned into .06. If someone had pointed it out nicely I would have uploaded it sooner. The posts aren't usually updated to post a new version, a new post is made.



NOTE** Updated to 3.2.06. Adds new clothes, fixes to cleaning and other bug fixes

This update adds in a whole bunch on new clothes. Too many I already lost count. It also has a few bug fixes reported since the last release.

Most, but not all, clothes have all breast/belly variations. I will get round to the missing ones as well as wardrobe icons tomorrow.

The Fixer 0.3.2.06 changelog

  • Added in 38 new wardrobe items including some Halloween themed outfits
  • Added in wardrobe icons for all new bits of clothes as well as icons for some previous missing items
  • Added in a checker when dressing up to make sure you actually have the items of clothing. Only really effects the cleaning job so you cant wear things you don’t own
  • Made it so cleaning the pub actually pays
  • Fixed where if you try to clean the pub without having worked there before, you would be naked.
  • Made it so that the wardrobe defaults to the outfit section if you are wearing an outfit. Otherwise it defaults to tops
  • Updated the fight checker, now if you have the broken perk or low confidence, you will be too afraid to fight back. If you have the succubus perk or the broken virgin perk you can choose not to resist
  • Fixed the gloryhole crash


PC DOWNLOAD -- MAC DOWNLOAD -- ANDROID DOWNLOAD
Damn it man you spoiled the whole conspiracy we had going.
 
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