So few of these actually do well and get a lot of people on patreon that starting a project like this and expecting to make money instead of doing it because you want to (like if you have a good story in mind that you want to put out) is only slightly more likely than getting a winning lotto ticket.
I don't believe that's true. Success on Patreon is not due to luck, but hard work and a quality product. The adult VN marketplace has become incredibly saturated in the past year. In a saturated market, the promotion of the product or the product itself has to be superior (or both, most likely) to others in the marketplace. That means improving skillsets (posing, scene composition, animations, coding, writing), incentivizing Patrons with special renders or Discord perks, promoting the game relentlessly across multiple platforms, and engaging with the audience in a way that makes them want to engage with the game and game's community. AV has a quality product (IMHO), so I suspect it's a deficiency in promotion and marketing that's limiting his playerbase. We all love to think that F95 drives pirates to become Patrons, but that's not what many devs say is the case after they look at their subscriber analytics.
Speaking as someone who was first a filthy pirate and then became a filthy developer, these games take a fuckton of work to produce. I think most devs start because they have a vision they want to realize in an actual game or simply love the idea of producing a game. However, after sinking hundreds of hours into development, I imagine some devs have to make a cost/benefit assessment about whether it is worthwhile to do something they enjoy or something that helps them pay the bills. Most people don't sink ~40 hours a week into their hobbies, which is what it takes to produce monthly updates of sufficient size if you're a lone developer.
EDIT: After posting this, I joined the Discord for this game and noticed that AV was saying he would post it here just hours after releasing it on Patreon. That's not helping him build subscribers because there's even less incentive to subscribe if people know they will get it for free by simply waiting a few hours more. I've seen at least one dev say that he sometimes makes almost 50% of his earnings in the time period between his game being released to high-tier Patreons and being leaked here. As microtransactions have shown us, people will absolutely pay not to wait, no matter how much they bitch about it.