- Thread starter CobraSGT
- Start date
- Aug 23, 2020
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In the short-term I don't think anything will diminish the growth of his Patreon page. Right now it seems that the game is big enough to be a self-sustaining machine. The game is big enough that it has reach, but not so big that everyone has jumped on it at once and moved on. It also seems to be the kind of game to endear itself to a very loyal audience.
Long-term I don't think this is sustainable at all. If these development cycles continue to take 5+ months, then eventually that's going to fester with even the loyal patrons. If the story's pacing does not also drastically improve then I think people are going to get fed up. But I think that's going to take some time. In the end, if this game is never finished, it's going to die slowly. It will be something like Milfy City, gradually the releases will be further apart, the Dev will communicate less and less as his passion for the game fades, resulting in diminishing positive feedback and a slow-down in growth. Eventually the slow-down turns into an actual shrinking user base. At the same time the user base begins to decline, the dev's already faltering interest in the game takes a nosedive as he sees diminishing returns, so either development cycles stretch on even longer or the releases are less ambitious and contain less content than earlier updates. Knowing L&P, I can't see him responding by increasing his productivity and rushing development, I think instead he'll just gradually lose interest. Eventually, some time around 2024 the game is going to go an entire 12-month stretch without an update (or maybe he'll just release some small DLCs). The death spiral will only gain momentum at that point.
But again, short-term I don't think 99% of his patrons will care if v0.150 takes longer than .130. I think they're along for the ride and for now he'll continue to experience growth. If this game is going to run into trouble it's going to be sometime 2023 as "new" patrons realize that updates are taking forever.
I could be wrong about this, but is the horseback riding event with Patricia an entire day? For some reason I have it in my head that Sophia, Patricia, and families, will be spending the entire day together at the ranch. If that's true, and if L&P isn't planning on changing that, I think that could be a really tough series of updates for him. I'm not super creative, but I have done some creative writing and I have been around creative people, and I've been mulling over the idea that being stuck at a ranch for (most) of a playable day could be really dull for L&P. If you look at his updates, they're full of difference scenes with different characters, doing different things. If I'm correct and the entire day is centered around the ranch, Patricia, and the family, I wonder if that will become sorta dull for L&P. If it does become dull, then we may see development slow even more as he has to really force himself to work on the game.
Now, I could be totally wrong about the ranch, and obviously I want to see this game completed. But if I'm right about the ranch then I can see it being the beginning of the end. That whole day could end up taking him two years to complete. I don't think the game could survive that because even the fans would probably be bored of it by then.
- Jul 20, 2019
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The ranch event is only Sophia and Patricia. Maybe a little of Patricia's friend Zoe. Neither Ellie or Dylan have events that day (but that's old information). I've heard that it's a full day event, but also that it's 3/4 of the day.
But if your estimate of the game fizzling out in 2024, we may not even get to it.
- Jul 17, 2019
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Not that it matters much, but with the latest 70%-70% the projection is November 27th.
It could be even before that if it starts to get the pace he had at the beginning of August (Nathalie and Dylan's events) and the remaining Sam's event and Cathy's event are not too time consuming for the scene creation.
But who knows, these are mere academic speculations...
December seems still a safe bet
Yes you are right, that's exactly what he said here
We don't know if it will be a family event, from what he says it is centered on Sophia and Patricia.
And, again, without any evidence to support it, it's really hard to see how long or how complex it will be.
It can be a relatively short event (wrt the time span in which it occurs), centered only on Sophia and Patricia and, beside the main event between them, he may quickly gloss over the rest of the trip and move to the next event of the day (which is still unknown). Mutatis mutandis, it could be a sort of Sam concert.
Or as you said it could be a tough one, where even new characters are introduced, new side stories etc. That, on one hand could be interesting because it offers many possibilities, on the other it will take more than one release to finish. And again new characters, new assets.... And/or, like Sam's concert, he could decide to move it to DLC.
Personally, I would more concern about all these DLCs than the ranch event as a sign of loss of interest. We all know that, realistically, these DLCs will never be made, unless he decides to abandon the game and give a final eye candy to the patrons.
Not that I'm against DLC, especially if they could be used to trim side stories and reduce the number of non essential events. And, ***in a ideal world***, DLC could be the perfect way for him to delegate part of the game to someone else. He can "train" someone to get small things done with his quality standard without the pressure of the game main release. And then with time she/he can help him later with the main game. But, obviously, we all know it's not gonna happen.
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- Jan 30, 2021
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I agree. My only exception would be the duration he can keep working. I believe that he essentially cultivates an entire new crop of patrons with each update. They stay until shock of development times smacks them in the face then disappear. If this is true, and his artwork stays top notch, then he may be able to continue this for a significant time.
At the ranch I was under the impression it was Sophia, Patricia, maybe Ellie and Patricia's friend that runs the ranch. Possible scenarios: Riding to a picnic for the foursome for a foursome; Patricia and Sophia depart for a ride and a time to share between each other leading to a twosome; Help work about the ranch meeting some ranch hands; Ranch hands get busy even if it is just exposures and touching (accidental or intentional); cleaning the stables and taking care of the horses (will he run down that path); Ellie and a ranch hand; Cooking dinner for the four and the ranch hands; Dessert as desired; Fixing the tractor, getting dirty, needing a shower (like Sophia is not addicted to showers); Fixing the well and getting soaked; Doing basic repairs about the ranch and creating alone times with Sophia and someone; Decision to stay overnight and a slew of possibilities; Meh! My brain is fried.
Even loyal patrons are jumping ship, and this would be an issue for him if AWAM was the only venture he had going on but it's not.
Regarding the next game day, if we ever get there.. it's a ranch, he's going to be making 129378 characters that will never show up again, manually pose horses etc etc. It's going to be a mess, calling it right now. Might aswell just make it Ranch DLC. Would probably be much better for the sake of core story development.
- May 10, 2017
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- Apr 4, 2019
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...I meet people all the time in my life that I never see again. That's still realism
- Mar 28, 2017
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We can bet that we won't see any DLC.Unless he do them way before the end of the game.Not that it matters much, but with the latest 70%-70% the projection is November 27th.
It could be even before that if it starts to get the pace he had at the beginning of August (Nathalie and Dylan's events) and the remaining Sam's event and Cathy's event are not too time consuming for the scene creation.
But who knows, these are mere academic speculations...
December seems still a safe bet
Yes you are right, that's exactly what he said here
We don't know if it will be a family event, from what he says it is centered on Sophia and Patricia.
And, again, without any evidence to support it, it's really hard to see how long or how complex it will be.
It can be a relatively short event (wrt the time span in which it occurs), centered only on Sophia and Patricia and, beside the main event between them, he may quickly gloss over the rest of the trip and move to the next event of the day (which is still unknown). Mutatis mutandis, it could be a sort of Sam concert.
Or as you said it could be a tough one, where even new characters are introduced, new side stories etc. That, on one hand could be interesting because it offers many possibilities, on the other it will take more than one release to finish. And again new characters, new assets.... And/or, like Sam's concert, he could decide to move it to DLC.
Personally, I would more concern about all these DLCs than the ranch event as a sign of loss of interest. We all know that, realistically, these DLCs will never be made, unless he decides to abandon the game and give a final eye candy to the patrons.
Not that I'm against DLC, especially if they could be used to trim side stories and reduce the number of non essential events. And, ***in a ideal world***, DLC could be the perfect way for him to delegate part of the game to someone else. He can "train" someone to get small things done with his quality standard without the pressure of the game main release. And then with time she/he can help him later with the main game. But, obviously, we all know it's not gonna happen.
- Aug 23, 2020
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There are a lot of unknowns and potential trappings in the ranch event. I'm of the opinion that if he does it he needs to commit and do it big. Make it the whole day and get some use out of the new assets and environment. That's what I find so frustrating about the bar for the concert, he spent a lot of time on it but it seems like it will be underutilized.Not that it matters much, but with the latest 70%-70% the projection is November 27th.
It could be even before that if it starts to get the pace he had at the beginning of August (Nathalie and Dylan's events) and the remaining Sam's event and Cathy's event are not too time consuming for the scene creation.
But who knows, these are mere academic speculations...
December seems still a safe bet
Yes you are right, that's exactly what he said here
We don't know if it will be a family event, from what he says it is centered on Sophia and Patricia.
And, again, without any evidence to support it, it's really hard to see how long or how complex it will be.
It can be a relatively short event (wrt the time span in which it occurs), centered only on Sophia and Patricia and, beside the main event between them, he may quickly gloss over the rest of the trip and move to the next event of the day (which is still unknown). Mutatis mutandis, it could be a sort of Sam concert.
Or as you said it could be a tough one, where even new characters are introduced, new side stories etc. That, on one hand could be interesting because it offers many possibilities, on the other it will take more than one release to finish. And again new characters, new assets.... And/or, like Sam's concert, he could decide to move it to DLC.
Personally, I would more concern about all these DLCs than the ranch event as a sign of loss of interest. We all know that, realistically, these DLCs will never be made, unless he decides to abandon the game and give a final eye candy to the patrons.
Not that I'm against DLC, especially if they could be used to trim side stories and reduce the number of non essential events. And, ***in a ideal world***, DLC could be the perfect way for him to delegate part of the game to someone else. He can "train" someone to get small things done with his quality standard without the pressure of the game main release. And then with time she/he can help him later with the main game. But, obviously, we all know it's not gonna happen.
If he's going to create a ranch then let's use it! Make it a day long event and really explore the new assets and sink your teeth into the story potential. If you can't do that then scrap the event and have Sophia and Patricia hang out at home.
Either way, I think it's great we're getting a full day with one character. Sometimes in order to get quality time with a character you simultaneously need quantity time. Short scenes are nice, but sometimes you need long/multiple scenes in order to really progress relationships. I think we're reaching that point with a lot of characters, they've been established and now we need them to take the next step to advance their relationship with Sophia. This next step should get them to a point where a sexual relationship isn't just theoretically possible but seems likely. To get to that step the characters need both quantity and quality time with Sophia to build on the spark that has already been established. We need to see Sophia think of these people as more than just someone that gives her butterflies, but as people that she actively wants to have sex with. Currently most of Sophia's thoughts are of the "oh that was fun but wrong. I shouldn't do these things." Her thoughts need to change to "Yes, if given the opportunity I would have sex with this person."
We're into Act 2 of the story at this point, so these relationships need to take a major step forward.
- Feb 14, 2018
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So many progress reports, so little time...
This update includes the Friday +5% CS and Saturday's +5% Rendered Scenes and shows the first dip in the projected release date since mid-August. Still looking like end of November for now. If he can keep up the current pace then it may be possible to finish the creation side of things in a month or so. P&T, let's not forget, took more than three weeks for the last update and was laughably slow (I believe it worked out to less than 2.25 pages per day?).
While he may be able to publish this update around mid-November (possible, not likely), this is still 4.5 months for 1/3 day and about 14 months for the full day, so nothing applause-worthy.
This update includes the Friday +5% CS and Saturday's +5% Rendered Scenes and shows the first dip in the projected release date since mid-August. Still looking like end of November for now. If he can keep up the current pace then it may be possible to finish the creation side of things in a month or so. P&T, let's not forget, took more than three weeks for the last update and was laughably slow (I believe it worked out to less than 2.25 pages per day?).
While he may be able to publish this update around mid-November (possible, not likely), this is still 4.5 months for 1/3 day and about 14 months for the full day, so nothing applause-worthy.
| Pct Complete | Factor | Pct of Update | |
| Created Scenes | 70% | 55% | 38.50% |
| Rendered Scenes | 70% | 25% | 17.50% |
| Art edited with PS | 15% | 5% | 0.75% |
| Programming & Translation | 0% | 15% | 0.00% |
| Total Pct of Update Completed | 56.75% | ||
| Start Date | 7/5/2021 | ||
| Festival of Bullshit (excuses) | 0 | ||
| Bullshit Days Consumed so far | 0 | ||
| Current # Days of Production (less BS consumed) | 82 | ||
| Days remaining in Festival of Bullshit | 0 | ||
| Estimated Completion Date | 11/26/2021 |
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- Jul 17, 2019
- 5,441
- 13,017
when will you update
Festival of Bullshit (excuses)
Bullshit Days Consumed so far
Days remaining in Festival of Bullshit
what has to happen to change the values?
- Sep 27, 2019
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Progress Report. Ver. 0.150
75% - 70%
15% - 0%
75% - 70%
15% - 0%
- Feb 14, 2018
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This was a variable I threw in at the start just to push back the projected completion date because if you look at it, the July progress reports were yielding a release date of mid-September which wasn't in any way realistic. The current chart was a do-over that removes the BS days from every update and is a true reflection of the progress reports shared by Lord_Xanatos and the dates on which they were posted.
If L&P announces he's going on vacation for a couple of weeks then I'd add 14 days to the festival total and at the end of the two weeks (or whenever the next progress report gets posted) 14 days to the consumed.
- Feb 14, 2018
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Well fuck me, that's good timing... That puts the new projection to 11/23 and total progress to 59.5%.
Couple of things could be going on here, these just spring to mind immediately:
1) He's got a kick in the backside from Patreons and is actually putting in a full day of work because it's been made clear that another 5-month cycle will have financial consequences.
2) It's the same as above, except he's always been able to work this fast and has deliberately been sitting on progress and updates to extend the development cycle, and therefore increase his total income over the lifespan of the game. (The short word for this is "Milking")
3) He's just losing interest in a lot of the peripheral elements of the stories and he's cutting material.
My guess, #3.
- Jul 20, 2017
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As far as he has posted he no vacations planned but with the rig he has he should be quicker than this.
If his Patrons are complaining it must be by e-mail
- Aug 23, 2020
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The problem is that instead of cutting peripheral characters it sounds like he's cutting content with major LIs in order to hurry them along. This event at the bar is going to tell us a lot about his current state of mind.
- Jul 20, 2017
- 15,423
- 93,926
So I wonder if he will rush with all the characters or with just the main characters? Or how many of the characters story have been cut down,Vicky/Nat ect without saying anything