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Terix3

Well-Known Member
Aug 2, 2017
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You know you fucked up when even patreon whales stop supporting you lol
Did they tho ? If you inspect the recent days he gained 1k patrons compared to last month and the beta is not even playable. Like literally it been up for 2 days i think absolutely broken and down for maintenance since then which is close to week now.
 

taboge9459

Member
Nov 16, 2021
238
643
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Did they tho ? If you inspect the recent days he gained 1k patrons compared to last month and the beta is not even playable. Like literally it been up for 2 days i think and down for maintenance since then which is close to week now.
That's because graphtreon doesn't work on a day by day basis. Within the sub style Helius is using the only useful datapoint is the last day of any given month as that corresponds to his income, someone canceling mid month has still paid and so is still counted for that month. If you only look within any given month Helius has never lost subscribers, even though looking at the trend over time is he's down 10k. We'll need to wait 2-3 months to see how the number pan out to account for the spike of newcomers coming in before the update in anticipation, and then for people to remember to cancel.

Just take a look at the numbers around the November release if you want an idea of how the numbers will behave going forward.
 

Terix3

Well-Known Member
Aug 2, 2017
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That's because graphtreon doesn't work on a day by day basis. Within the sub style Helius is using the only useful datapoint is the last day of any given month as that corresponds to his income, someone canceling mid month has still paid and so is still counted for that month. If you only look within any given month Helius has never lost subscribers, even though looking at the trend over time is he's down 10k. We'll need to wait 2-3 months to see how the number pan out to account for the spike of newcomers coming in before the update in anticipation, and then for people to remember to cancel.

Just take a look at the numbers around the November release if you want an idea of how the numbers will behave going forward.
You compare given day of month to same day of last month it doesn't need to be end of month. If someone cancels the sub they paid for that month but they are not factored in total current patron count and that is the graph we are seeing. Obviously to gain better picture you should compare full month to another full month and compensate to whatever events could have impacted it.
 

taboge9459

Member
Nov 16, 2021
238
643
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You compare given day of month to same day of last month it doesn't need to be end of month. If someone cancels the sub they paid for that month but they are not factored in total current patron count and that is the graph we are seeing.
Nope, that is not the graph we are seeing. Graphtreon is meant to estimate earnings, so it counts subs paid in a month to get that estimated earnings per month figure you see, not active subs. If you sub on a new account and cancel right after, that number will increase by 1 for the sub, but then not decrease for the unsub since you've still paid in for that month and it contributes to earnings. It will only decrease in extreme circumstances like refunds given afaik (or anything that may affect the earnings).

If it helps you think of it, you have an accurate snap shot of current subs at the start of any given month, then newly gained subs are appended on top of that to give a rough estimate of earnings (not active subs mind you) for any given period within the month. That puts it slightly different to a live sub count. Set the scope to a year to see what I'm talking about, it's way to get the discontinuous leap frogging on the first of every month as opposed to a continuous trend like a live sub count would provide. See the live twitter subs for this, that one is continuous since it is a live sub count.
 

Terix3

Well-Known Member
Aug 2, 2017
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Nope, that is not the graph we are seeing. Graphtreon is meant to estimate earnings, so it counts subs paid in a month to get that estimated earnings per month figure you see, not active subs. If you sub on a new account and cancel right after, that number will increase by 1 for the sub, but then not decrease for the unsub since you've still paid in for that month and it contributes to earnings. It will only decrease in extreme circumstances like refunds given afaik (or anything that may affect the earnings).

If it helps you think of it, you have an accurate snap shot of current subs at the start of any given month, then newly gained subs are appended on top of that to give a rough estimate of earnings (not active subs mind you) for any given period within the month. That puts it slightly different to a live sub count. Set the scope to a year to see what I'm talking about, it's way to get the discontinuous leap frogging on the first of every month as opposed to a continuous trend like a live sub count would provide. See the live twitter subs for this, that one is continuous since it is a live sub count.
How sure are you about this?
I believe that the numbers on grapheon are snapshot of supporter count on patreon site. Doing sub outs I have observed that the number of patrons does actually drop.
I went hunting and found this :




On those graphs i found drops mid month. Do note that detailed day to day graph is only available for last month and after that grapheon does some averaging.
 
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taboge9459

Member
Nov 16, 2021
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I only do buy ins - i sub in and sub out. I've observed that that that the number on patreon goes up when i sub in and then drops down when I sub out. The number on grapheon is simply once a day snapshot of numbers shown on patreon.
Here you can see grapheon that has curve drop mid month.
If what you say is true mid month drop would not be possible .
I pointed out refunds and other earnings affecting things can factor into it. If you wanna see the behavior difference I am talking about:

1678542588218.png
Notice it's discontinuous and leap frogs, since subs renew on the first of the month. Compare that to live subscriber data, it's continuous since that stuff updates throughout the month.

1678542801487.png

Aaand looking into it some more it seems like my assumptions might be slightly off, since Patreon now seems to go by sub date as opposed to first of the month like last time I used it. Not 100% sure how that would affect graphtreon.

1678542987597.png

You're still better off comparing peak to peak or trough to trough so that whatever causes that leap frogging isn't affecting your in month data.
 

taboge9459

Member
Nov 16, 2021
238
643
103
How sure are you about this?
I believe that the numbers on grapheon are snapshot of supporter count on patreon site. Doing sub outs I have observed that the number of patrons does actually drop.
I went hunting and found this :




On those graphs i found drops mid month. Do note that detailed day to day graph is only available for last month and after that grapheon does some averaging.
Not too sure anymore, looks like Patreons renewal policy changed since the last time I used it :(, which makes this much harder to gauge lol. There is still something causing that first of the month behavior though, so maybe subs from before that update? Looking at those it's only recent that the mid month decrease is happening.

Oh, found the new behavior.
 

Terix3

Well-Known Member
Aug 2, 2017
1,212
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385
Not too sure anymore, looks like Patreons renewal policy changed since the last time I used it :(, which makes this much harder to gauge lol. There is still something causing that first of the month behavior though, so maybe subs from before that update? Looking at those it's only recent that the mid month decrease is happening.
I think that the end of month drop is caused by renewals not being processed, lack of founds, the bank requiring confirmation from user or maybe simply users waiting for end of month to unsub. Maybe some payments simply take few days to get counted.
 

taboge9459

Member
Nov 16, 2021
238
643
103
I think that the end of month drop is caused by renewals not being processed, lack of founds, the bank requiring confirmation from user or maybe simply users waiting for end of month to unsub. Maybe some payments simply take few days to get counted.
Yeah it's going to be hard to read graphtreon going forward with this new update style. The patron count should be more accurate, but now the earnings will be off since you don't know how many leavers canceled before paying for that month.
 

Nihil5320

Member
Jul 2, 2022
414
1,028
267
Yeah it's going to be hard to read graphtreon going forward with this new update style. The patron count should be more accurate, but now the earnings will be off since you don't know how many leavers canceled before paying for that month.
If you're looking for the impact of a single event it will just be a continuous decline over the next month instead of a sudden drop at the end.

Or at least it will be once the grouping of subs around the 1st lessens. I doubt it will disappear entirely due to common paydates being 31st/1st of each month.

Where sudden subscriber drops are significant we should be able to infer the impact a lot sooner though.
 

SirenBrink

Newbie
Feb 13, 2020
81
132
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The Denuvo marketeers did a campaign a while ago to tell people that Denuvo doesn't decrease game performance, and it seemed to be oddly well-received. Shareholders will do anything to protect their dogshit opinions.

Note that this was after the Steam release of Doom Eternal, which released with a DRM-less executable neatly tucked away in it's files. Some people did side by side comparisons of Doom Eternal with and without Denuvo; it increased load times by about 1.1% (Doom's loading times are pretty short, also depends on storage device), reduced framerate by around 5% (CPU-bound), increased frame time by 1ms average (that's your frame latency, super important in shooters). In particular, Denuvo is rough on underpowered or minimally spec'd systems by raising the CPU and memory overhead.

Luckily Bethesda realized this and removed Denuvo from the current release.

My point is Helius cares more about getting money than producing a worthwhile product. At least with a AAA corporation you could argue they can do both, Helius is just wasting precious and limited resources given to the project in good faith.
 

ZeroWitch

Newbie
May 20, 2019
31
9
95
isnt this already long abandoned? if anything they just say stuff for a long time now to keep getting money for something with no progress
 

Terix3

Well-Known Member
Aug 2, 2017
1,212
1,828
385
The Denuvo marketeers did a campaign a while ago to tell people that Denuvo doesn't decrease game performance, and it seemed to be oddly well-received. Shareholders will do anything to protect their dogshit opinions.

Note that this was after the Steam release of Doom Eternal, which released with a DRM-less executable neatly tucked away in it's files. Some people did side by side comparisons of Doom Eternal with and without Denuvo; it increased load times by about 1.1% (Doom's loading times are pretty short, also depends on storage device), reduced framerate by around 5% (CPU-bound), increased frame time by 1ms average (that's your frame latency, super important in shooters). In particular, Denuvo is rough on underpowered or minimally spec'd systems by raising the CPU and memory overhead.

Luckily Bethesda realized this and removed Denuvo from the current release.

My point is Helius cares more about getting money than producing a worthwhile product. At least with a AAA corporation you could argue they can do both, Helius is just wasting precious and limited resources given to the project in good faith.
I though if anything the Doom Eternal slip up proved negligible impact of Denuvo on performance. That is how i felt about it because before people would make you believe denuvo is 20% performance hit and destroys your SSD.

5% fps drop is really nothing when the game by default have massive frame rate variance, like you have 30 min average 60 max 90. I assume that if you are GPU bound (should be for most games) there won't be any impact.
Frame delay - fighting games are most sensitive to it and tournaments are played on consoles despite them having couple extra frames delay compared to PC. I doubt 1 frame has noticeable impact on normal games.
 
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