- Mar 2, 2022
- 91
- 1,720
Latestguys any guess when will episode 10 come?
TLDR: 08/12/2023-29/12/2023 (Incl testing)TLDR: Earliest:1/12/2023 Including 2 weeks testing
For the preceding two weeks, DPC averaged 11 animations each week.
The only other time he attained a similar rate was in week 6 with 12 animations. This is encouraging!
Using Animation Count With Current Pace
We're looking at 17th of November with the remaining 52 Animations if we continue with the current production pace. (11 animations per week)
Here is a graph that shows the evolution of animation development.
View attachment 3002582
Using Average Animation Pace for Episode 10
Using the average animation rate for episode 10, we raise our estimated release date.
With this strategy, we anticipate that animation will be completed on December 15, 2023.
This is seen in the following table:
You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.
Using Average Animation Duration From Episode 9
Average animation duration for episode 9: 00:05.
Animation Duration left to develop (Using 5 sec average): 04:23
Peak animation duration developed during vacation: 00:05 seconds per day
To complete the 05:44 minutes of animation at the peak speed of 00:05 it will take 57.7 days. We are looking at 25/11/2023 for the animations to finish.
Using Average Lewd Animation Duration From Episode 9
From DPCs status updates it's implied the remain animations will be lewd. So we can refine our estimate slightly.
Average lewd animation duration for episode 9: 00:04.
Animation Duration left to develop (Using 4 sec average): 03:48
Peak animation duration developed during vacation: 00:05 seconds per day
To complete the 03:48 minutes of animation at the peak speed of 00:05 it will take 50.1 days. We are looking at 18/11/2023 for the animations to finish.
Conclusion
Throughout this piece, I refer to 52 as the number of remaining animations and 343 as the total animation count. This is unquestionably the inappropriate measure to employ. DPC has been combining animations into a single animation, resulting in an incorrect animation count. As a result, duration is a far more effective metric. Unfortunately, we do not have access to that, therefore 52/343 will have to suffice for our guesses. Based off this, assume the estimate will be earlier then what I have stated.
I have included the additional 6 animations into the render queue. Assuming this is also what DPC has done, he achieved a pace of 11 animations per week for last week and this week. This increased the weekly animation rate to 6.77.
Another thing to keep in mind is that even once the animations are finished, testing will take two weeks.
Take this all with a grain of salt!
The bottleneck for development time is animations. The target number of animations is 337. DPC has currently produced 269 animations.
Using Animation Count
We're looking at a 10-week turnaround with the remaining 68 Animations if we continue with the current production pace.
Here is a table that shows the evolution of animation development.
You don't have permission to view the spoiler content.
Log in or register now.
Using Average Animation Duration From Episode 9
Average animation duration for episode 9: 00:05.
Animation Duration left to develop (Using 5 sec average): 05:44
Peak animation duration developed during vacation: 00:05 seconds per day
To complete the 05:44 minutes of animation at the peak speed of 00:05 it will take 65 days. We are looking at 03/12/2023 for the animations to finish.
Using Average Lewd Animation Duration From Episode 9
From DPCs status updates it's implied the remain animations will be lewd. So we can refine our estimate slightly.
Average lewd animation duration for episode 9: 00:04.
Animation Duration left to develop (Using 4 sec average): 04:58
Peak animation duration developed during vacation: 00:05 seconds per day
To complete the 04:58 minutes of animation at the peak speed of 00:05 it will take 52 days. We are looking at 24/11/2023 for the animations to finish.
Conclusion
Throughout this piece, I refer to 68 as the number of remaining animations and 337 as the total animation count. This is unquestionably the inappropriate measure to employ. DPC has been combining animations into a single animation, resulting in an incorrect animation count. As a result, duration is a far more effective metric. Unfortunately, we do not have access to that, therefore 68/337 will have to suffice for our guesses. Based off this, assume the estimate will be less then what I have stated.
According to what you can see on the table, things aren't looking well right now. He has updated another machine to a 4090, and renderings are finished, so we can expect a faster animation production speed from now till release.
Another thing to keep in mind is that even once the animations are finished, testing will take two weeks.
Take this all with a grain of salt!
Here are some other great posts that focus on this topic:
Using Lewd Animation Duration
Uses Animation CountAbout the remaining animations duration, my guess would be an average of less than 4s each.
My reasons for that are that all those animations left are from lewd scenes, which always were mostly short (75% of ep9 animations had less than 4s)
Also, DPC said that some animations from the queue would be merged to a single one, which means those should be even smaller.
So, that still leaves us with 16320 frames to render. If we use his render speed from his vacation (4330 renders in 2 weeks) that would mean it would take 52 days to render all those frames.
However, that was before his hardware update. From what I looked online, in DAZ3d a 4090 is roughly 70 to 80% percent faster than a 3090.
If that is the case, the remaining time goes to 30 days, a much better result that would place the update in mid november.
Overall ProgressBack once again.
Still are done, in all fariness to DPC an impressive total. Not Much to say on that front really.
View attachment 2966829
As for the animation. Quicker at 60 FPS than they were on the old cards? Bollocks. The average animations completed by week 41, 6.5 a week. Average animations completed between week 36 and week 41? 6.4 the second PC was being put together on the day of the August 11th, week 34 update. In other words even with the second system live animations stayed the same on average.
View attachment 2966889
For a quick reference Episode 9 had 303 animations that were produced at an average of 7.6 a week. In other words he is producing 1 less animation a week with 2 systems running 4090 cards. Perhaps if we're lucky the 3rd system will see upto 9 a week. 269+68=337 at an average of 6.5 that means completion around 8th December (plus beta testing). If he somehow hits 9 that would still be around 24th November ready for two weeks Beta testing.
View attachment 2966899
Updated BigTable™ with the recent informations.
EpisodeRelease!
- Today is the release time of Episode 9.
- Let's compare with the previous checkup 2 weeks before:
- Renders: 5539 > 5725 produced.
- +186. With the little amount remaining that one was crossed already.
- Animations: 257 > 269 produced. 68 Left.
- +12 completed at 6.0/Week, previous metric was 6.7/Week.
- Based on actual EP10 high/avg 10 weeks of rendering left. That would put into Early December.
- If by some miracle, the extra upgrade and idle boost to 9.0/Weeks (vs 6.7) it's still 8 weeks of waiting.
- Same plague as EP9 for DevTime, Animation again disturb the end schedule and the 60 FPS not helping.
Considering the massive horse power of the new rings it's seems like an underwhelming result. DPC seems happy.
When release, the ratio of the total seconds of animation per weeks (sA/W) will put a definitive respond to that.
We all looking for it and typing these reports been getting depressing, personal optimism all time low.
EP10 getting closer to get a 365 days of Development Time.- Release could be Early
NovemberDecember (11 months / 51 weeks projection). 81% complete.Complete Table with the idea of Holy Bacchus† original post — Being a DIK in development since 4 years, 7 months, 22 days (55 months / 242 weeks / 1695 days / 40,680 hours)
EP Renders Animations (min) Music* Δ Size_GB Release Development Time Ratio* R/W sA/W EP1 1301_.__ 51_____ 3:29 — 7 1.1 (new) 07 Feb, 19 — days — — — EP2 1709 (+31%) 77 _(+26) 3:36 — 8 2.3 (+1.2) 04 May, 19 087_ (2 months, 28 days |≈12 weeks) 155 138 17.4 EP3 2289 (+34%) 99 _(+22) 4:42 — 10 4.1 (+1.8) 16 Aug, 19 105_ (3 months, 13 days |≈15 weeks) 177 153 18.8 EP4 2532 (+11%) 134 _(+35) 7:57 — 15 6.1 (+2.0) 10 Jan, 20 148_ (4 months, 26 days |≈21 weeks) 142 120 22.6 EP5 2456_ (-3%) 157 _(+23) 8:35 17 (3.4K$) 11 8.0 (+1.9) 29 May, 20 141_ (4 months, 20 days |≈20 weeks) 147 122 25.6 EP6 3336 (+35%) 162 __(+5) 8:33 24 (4.8K$) 19 11.1 (+3.1) 13 Nov, 20 169_ (5 months, 16 days |≈24 weeks) 159 138 21.2 EP7 3723 (+12%) 250 _(+55) 18:14 18 (3.6K$) 15 14.5 (+3.4) 23 Apr, 21 162_ (5 months, 11 days |≈23 weeks) 208 161 47.3 EP8 4158 (+12%) 358 (+108) 26:21 34 (6.8K$) 16 19.5 (+5.0) 19 Nov, 21 211_ (6 months, 28 days |≈30 weeks) 190 138 52.5 EPI 794____ 36_____ 4:36 19 (3.8K$) 2 2.6 (new) 4 Mar, 22 105_ (3 months, 13 days |≈15 weeks) 71 53 17.7 EP9 5037 (+35%) 303 _(-55) 26:08 21 (4.2K$) 18 7.3 (+4.7) 16 Dec, 22 287_ (9 months, 12 days |≈41 weeks) 161 123 38.2 EP10 5725 (+14%) 269 [337] 26 (5.2K$) — — in dev 287_ (9 months, 13 days |≈41 weeks) — — —
*You must be registered to see the links| Total: 31,641$ — Δ=Scenes — Ratio = (Renders/Weeks + secondsAnimations/Weeks) | Renders/Weeks | secondsAnimations/Weeks
Thumbs Up to:
| Casiope's DIK Walkthrough | AchedCroissant's EP10 Preview Collection | Extra: EP10 Rooster Collection | Clone Series Renders
| shazba's Q/A Story Summary | F4iunyl3x's 60 FPS Animation Mod | ElectronicRoberts's Data Infographic Compilation
| Holy Bacchus 's Story Timeline | DrPinkCake's Q&A Session | RPDL'sYou must be registered to see the links
Last edited: